How to Predict the Future
How can we predict the future? It is almost impossible or never possible. If somebody could do it, who will buy a lottery ticket? The future predict person will take it always. Hence, nobody will invest any money for future businesses as well as lottery. However, as Scientists do in signalling processing we can predict multiple futures. In particular, we can reduce a lot of uncertainty to see the future. Let's discuss now how to predict futures scientifically. Scientists usually considers futures by three Ps and a W where three Ps are possible, probable, and preferable futures and a W is wildcards. The future can be illustrated based on the past and the present as shown in the figure 1 Since we live in a causal space, the past to the present is already determined. Thus, the path from the past to the present is able to a known fact. We, of cause, can not know every events in the past to present path but it is obvious that the path can never be changed any longer. How about the path form the present to the future? Frankly speaking, we don't know it to which direction it will go among red point, the blue point and the green point. Hence, in order to predict future we must understand that there is a lot of uncertainties, e.g, in figure 1 from the bottom black arrow to the top black arrow. If we collects many facts from the past to present, Scientists state that we can reduce the uncertainties, i.e, narrowing the width of two block arrows. However, unfortunately the future usually will not go straightly, i.e., not go for the blue point. It goes to somewhere else, hard to the predictable point such as the red point or the green point. It says that my simple way \emph{without preparing for the future seriously} can probably not bring you to the true future. Assume that the future is the red point as in Figure 2 where my future is not the true future. My future represents my preferred future and predicted future based on only my narrow knowledge. A homo-sapiens has a great tendency to narrow the uncertainty into his situation when he images something. He want to related the future to his strength areas and do not want to see wide which will probably disconnect the direction of the future from his way. To improve our future prediction ability, we need to exercise three methods as Scientists do in a Lab. First, you need to wide your view by collecting information much more than what you have now and try to search the stronger direction which looks more in line with the true future than my way. Sometimes, or high probably, the true future will not be on the my way, as we can see in Figure 2. Moreover, because of your limited knowledge, my uncertainty range even can probably not include the the direction to the true future. Next, if you find the stronger direction forward to the true future, it is now the time to narrow the range of the general uncertainty. If you start to narrow the range of my uncertainty by skipping the first step, you will probably never reach to the right direction for the future prediction. By the narrowing, you will reduce your energy and selects a few item able to concentrate. Finally, although my way is far from the strong future way, it is early for you to give up your future. Since you now know the strong direction of the future, you can shape to the future much easier than before. If you stick on the my future, how can you shape the future well. Remember that ``clear knowledge of enemy situations is necessary to win in a battle -- 100 fights 100 wins''. Category:Future